The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects US LNG exports to average 10.5 billion ft3/d during the 2H22, which is a 6% decrease from 1H22, according to the agency’s July 2022 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). That amount is a 14% decrease in US LNG exports from EIA’s June forecast.
EIA revised its estimates based on an outage at the Freeport LNG facility, which is expected to last until late 2022. Freeport accounts for 17% of US LNG export capacity.
“With less LNG being exported in the second half of the year, more natural gas is likely to stay in the domestic market,” said EIA Administrator Joe DeCarolis. “We expect lower US natural gas prices for the rest of 2022 than we had previously forecast, but lower prices in 2022 led us to reduce our expectations for natural gas production.”
EIA forecasts the US Henry Hub spot price will average US$5.97/per million Btu during 2H22, down 44% from the June forecast. For the last three quarters of 2023, EIA expects natural gas prices will average US$4.36/per million Btu, up 14% from the June forecast. EIA also expects that more natural gas will be in storage heading into this winter than it had forecast in June.
Other key takeaways from the July 2022 STEO forecast include:
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